I don't have an answer to your particular situation, sadly, but man do I understand your pain!

I can only mention two things:

-As far as I understand, provisional profiles are not required for Mac apps at all
-From my experience, for non-MAS apps, I recommend to deselect "Automatically manage signing" and do it manually with a script (I use an AppleScript droplet).

May I also advise to submit a bug to Apple (unless you already did of course). The time - and resources - we waste because of this poorly designed pseudo-security mumbo-jumbo is absolutely astonishing. That's only my view, of course.


Leo